The Amish future (Sailer, at Taki's):
Harpending and Cochran hypothesize that the Amish are genetically distinct not only because of “founders’ effects”—idiosyncrasies in the genes of the 200 original American Amish – but also because they are increasingly becoming more Amish genetically due to “selection effects.”The future belongs to those who show up, as even Orthodox clergy are beginning to realize:
First, they are likely getting more fertile. The U. of Utah anthropologists go on:
Second, and more interesting, the Amish have probably experienced selection for increased Amishness—an increase in the degree to which Amish find their lifestyle congenial, since those who like it least, leave. We have called this kind of differential emigration “boiling off”. Obviously, if some of the soup boils off, what is left is more concentrated.They theorize the existence of an Amish Quotient:
One could, with difficulty and a lot of investment, identify dimensions of a hypothetical AQ. It would likely include affinity for work, perseverance, low status competition, respect for authority, conscientiousness, community orientation, and so on.If the Amish community has typically lost the 10% of its population least Amish by nature, the average AQ would have increased by about 1 AQ point for each of the ten generations in America: that’s nine or ten points in total so far.
Perhaps not coincidentally, Ashkenazi Jews, whom Cochran and Harpending argued in their 2005 paper Natural History of Ashkenazi Intelligence have undergone Darwinian selection for traits conducive to success at white collar business, appear to average about ten IQ points higher than gentile Europeans.
Orthodox birth rate numbers are awful almost everywhere (with some notable exceptions). If you add our equally atrocious post-primary school graduation attrition rates, you have a recipe for disaster. It's a topic at the pan-Orthodox level that will be discussed at the upcoming Great Council and deservedly so.Maybe the Orthodox need more support for young families and the provision of real social and economic community and a vision of extended families in the pews instead of a tourist trap for middle-aged converts.
In a lot of different contexts, people are realizing the future belongs to those who show up. Now we are behind the eight ball, and the clergy belatedly realize that they have made a horrible and perhaps irreversible miscalculation. (The Levantine Christians thought their amiable, Meditteranean lifestyle would go on forever, while the Sunnis were busy cranking out four to eight children for their zero to two.)
Americans with their Puritan, propositional, city-on-a-hill mentality seem to harbor a visceral dislike for anybody else's attempts to fumble their way toward a more traditional vision of large, extended families living and dying as a group in the Church, and practicing assortative mating. After all, it doesn't take too many generations of such practice to get from family to Family, and loyalty to anything but the secular democratic State is an appalling hatecrime in the US.