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Tuesday, August 2, 2011

The Republic is saved

The US government can now take on more debt to pay its bills and service existing debt.

When you and I try this, creditors say we're insolvent and red flags go up all over the place. This is no different than the schlep in the credit card doom loop, gambling that the leverage will buy him time until he can turn things around. Won't work for the schlep, won't work for the government.

The Left is in an absolute froth over this purely political theater, reported in nauseating detail through the completely uncritical eye of mainstream media. Folks, the crisis is the debt, not the debt ceiling.

The US is in the last of all bubbles: the market for sovereign debt. Treasuries are at negative real yields. Does anybody seriously believe 2.6% annual will stay ahead of prices over 10 years?

Shell-shocked banks and funds are piling into Treasuries as a safe haven, bidding down yields on the bet that they can always unload the securities on somebody. This is the same "greater fool" theory that's been around from Dutch tulip bulbs to dot-com to housing. Eventually the music will stop and somebody will be left holding a pile of bonds they can't unload for anywhere near what they paid for them. The Fed will attempt to be the buyer of last resort and unleash hyper-inflation. The Chinese, OPEC and domestic pension funds are real creditors who expect to be paid with real dollars. The day of reckoning approacheth, and all the accounting legerdemain and economic jargon in the world can't stop it.

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