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Thursday, October 29, 2009

The Return of the Great Depression

A new book by Vox Day.

I don't know that I'd use the big 'D' word, but some things I think we are going to see revealed as 'new' truths:

1. Mortgages with a term over 15 years make no financial sense.
2. Mortgages for any amount over two to three (more like two) times annual income make no financial sense.
3. College, for the most part, makes no financial sense, nor do the loans that pay for it.
4. Car loans make no financial sense.
5. Renting, and boarding houses, are actually not a bad idea.
6. The projection of rates of return in real dollars for practically all 401k's is wildly overstated, and even more so after accounting for taxes on withdrawals.

There are others, but those are six that come readily to mind. There is a whole super-structure of economic activity that assumes we have way more discretionary income than we really do. A 'depression' is nothing less than the liquidation of the 'bubble' economy down to the level of the 'real' economy, that is, the economy that's actually supported by the pool of real savings.

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