Thursday, December 12, 2013

Apocalypse chips

I love snacking on this stuff, even though it's probably bad for me. Mangan's a sober guy, so it's interesting to see his interest piqued on this topic: How could the West collapse?

Random comments from the linked thread:
The basic law of entropy is that all organized structures ultimately decay, but one interesting difference between Asia and the West is that Asian cultures may become stagnant but rarely disappear entirely while cultures that arose West of, say, India seem to follow a very different pattern where each culture achieves a peak and then gets utterly wiped out.

Greece, Rome, Babylon, Persia, Byzantine, etc, they are utterly wiped out. They didn't just become moribund but simply ceased to exist on a cultural or ethnic level. This doesn't seem to happen to Asian cultures. They simply become senile - and perhaps even that's too strong a word. Moribund is better. The only culture and ethnic group of the "Western" region that seems to have resisted this basic trend are the Jews, and they did so without holding on to physical territory, which either makes it more remarkable or more understandable depending on how you look at it.

There won't be a collapse. The Millennials are over 50% in favor of recalling Obama. That's historic.

With proper reactionary guidance from those of us in the X generation, this Fourth Turning might undo 100 years of big-government progressivism. I didn't believe it, but I see it now.

Won't be long now. The dollar is @ 60% of international transactions, down from 90% a few years ago. When it drops below 50%, the panic will begin. The Keepers of the Ponzi know this. That's why they're after the guns. Won't get 'em tho. I'd say Martial Law and incipient Civil War along various dimensions - racial, urban-rural, etc. - well before the 2016 Dog-and-Pony show.

Have been waiting for the collapse since 2008. Was a subscriber to ShadowStats since then but gave it up last year. I simply do not understand how we get to collapse...

No one sufficiently explains the process...they always begin by saying that China will give up on the dollar. Why would they?

On the other hand, in my day to day actives, I can see the slow collapse all around me, and can imagine it lasting far into the future. A planned, almost acidic disintegration of all we once thought was stable, comfortable, and of any decent value.
Every day our world gets a little more black and brown, and our masters more distant and cold. Every day the cops get a little less White, and a little more corrupt, till we’re nothing but old men watching reruns of the Andy Griffith show in cockroach infested nursing homes and amazed by the alien feeling of that simple, kind sheriff in old America. The same old cloned, suburban box stores and fast-food restaurants litter our landscape, but each year get only crappier and service and quality. The weird combinations of the modern world all reach their peak: access to clean water plummets, but smartphone use is near universal.

Why do exporters export? The US can import their products, but can it pay for them? More specifically, for how long will payment in its own debased scrip be accepted in exchange?

China will cease its torrent of plastic toys precisely at the moment it perceives the cost of their inputs exceed the value of American paper festooned with eagles and zeros. They may not do this soon or ever, but there is a metric.

My two cents is that we are on the train tracks and the train is coming. We don't know if we can see the train or hear the train or if those are vibrations from the train transmitted through the rails. But, no question, we are on the tracks and I know this because:

1. No social order has ever lasted for all of history. Many societies have disappeared entirely and we are doing many things wrong.
2. No society has ever been able to print money and buy its own debt with it forever. Eventually, the debentures on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be cancelled. Trillions of dollars in paper wealth will vanish like it did in 2008, only the next time will be even bigger.
3. All multicultural empires devolve into their constituent nations. Rome, Byzantium, the Ottomans, Austro-Hungarians, British and European colonial powers, the USSR, all of them, without exception.

Technological progress masks societal entropy. Debt cannot be rolled over forever; people with wildly different time preferences, preferences for organizational complexity and religious creeds do not stay married, particularly once it's clear the government pie is finite and getting smaller. So it's not if but when, and there are going to be several nations where the current one is located. Cum grano salis, I'm 50 years old, and older people like to delude themselves with the idea that it all ends with them. But I doubt the US in its current form sticks around for more than another century.

On that last note, I remember watching the Berlin Wall being torn down in November 1989. I remarked to my roommate that the Soviet Union had five more years. He said ten. It was over in two, so history has a way of accelerating in unexpected bursts. For the youngsters out there, it would be like waking up one morning and finding out Kim Jong Un had been put under house arrest, the two Koreas were uniting, and Manchuria, Tibet and Uyghur had declared their independence.

People will hang on to the familiar for the longest time. Up to the very end, the Byzantines called their doomed city and its few pathetic islands an empire. Their bureaucrats got up and went to work at their pointlessly complex jobs every day until the end. They probably figured they had no choice. I am personally acquainted with a number of Syrians. The Alawites and Christians thought they'd earn their living (nobody ever paid taxes) and enjoy their relaxed, affable way of life forever. Then one day everybody realized the Sunni rabble outnumbered them five to one. Syria as a coherent nation is done unless the ruling class rallies and starts killing a lot of people. That probably won't happen, and my Syrian acquaintances still can't believe this happened. My point, again, is that events have a way of accelerating even as everybody assures themselves that things will continue as they always have.

1 comment:

Gyan said...

The American people are very accepting of the State tyranny unless their guns are touched.

So why should they go after the guns?
The people anyway are going to accept all the impositions that the Govt is imposing.

The reason being that for conservatives, the highest value is being loyal Americans. To remain loyal Americans, they are willing to stomach everything.